The Market Today
The primary data source is the monthly Greater Palm Springs Realtor (GPSR) Desert Housing Report. This information is made available monthly to all GPSR members.
My commentary and observations are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of experts in the industry. The past is not always a reliable prediction of the future, in fact even with historical performance data, not everyone agrees on what it means, hence it's impossible to predict the future beyond opinion.
March 2025
My key takeaway from the March desert housing report is SUPPLY EXCEEDS DEMAND – when prices are stable and you have the same number of sales as last year, yet inventory is up +53%, it seems a likely conclusion that supply has outpaced demand —but it’s not all doom and gloom, I think most in the industry believe buyers still want to buy, and the median sales time is a relatively low 48 days for homes priced right.
Q: when is a good time to buy?
A: when you’re ready 👍
We are seeing quite a swing in change between valley cities, Indian Wells +18% and Palm Springs -4%. Buyers and Sellers alike need to understand what's going on in their city so they can make informed decisions. As you can see, no two cities are alike, and it's even more critical to see how the neighborhoods and communities within each city are performing.
The "Months of Sales" (MOS) ratio is the industry's key performance indicator of supply and demand. MOS is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current rate of sales. Most experts agree 6 months is the magic number - the market favors sellers <6 months, or buyers >6 months. And we landed right at 6 months in March, and you can see from the trend line where we are likely heading.
February 2025
The Greater Palm Springs area market results for February look an awful lot like January results - modest rise in prices but sales are about the same as last year, while inventory is nearly 50% higher compared to last year, average months of sales increased to 5.7 months (varies widely by city) and yet we have a healthy 46 median days on the market. My tracking of MLS data suggests we are seeing a number of active listing taking price reductions - an anomaly or are seller price reductions becoming a trend? Let’s see what our peak selling season brings us 😊👌
Read the February 2025 Desert Housing Report in its entirety. Credit to the Greater Palm Springs Realtors Association (GPSR) for pulling this data together each month.
The year over year change varies widely between city - and likewise by neighborhood within each city. Information you need if buying or selling a home in today’s market.
The “Months of Sales” (MOS) ratio is the real estate industry’s key indicator of supply and demand. MOS is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the existing rate of sales. When the supply (inventory) exceeds demand, prices usually fall (buyer’s market). When the supply (inventory) is low, and demand is high, prices tend to rise (seller’s market), Most of the industry agrees that 6 months is the magic number and represents a balanced market, favoring neither the seller or the buyer. *below 6 months supply favors the seller both in price and time on market, **above 6 months favors the buyer, with a greater selection of homes and increased bargaining power** We are now at 5.7 MOS, are we on a trajectory toward a buyers market? Historically, we see inventory peak in March and maybe that will relieve some of the pressure. I find most interesting the deviation in MOS by city - Rancho Mirage at 8.2 MOS and Palm Springs at 7.2 MOS. Whether you’re a buyer or seller in this market, you’ll want to have a plan that reflects this data 🤓.
Supply and Demand by City - the Months of Sales (MOS) ratio. Why is it important? It will take nearly 6 months to sell all the homes on the market today unless the current rate of sales improves. Quite a different story than “Days In Market” ratio of 46 days (why do you think that is?). I find Palm Springs at 7.2 MOS and Rancho Mirage at 8.2 MOS somewhat disturbing, but I’m optimistic by the more balanced market in Cathedral City, Palm Desert, and LaQuinta all with under 6 MOS. The deviations by city are not unusual, but leads me to dive deeper inside my target neighborhoods to understand what’s going on and better serve my clients, because like they say, the devil is in the details ❤️. Take care and enjoy this beautiful spring-like winter day.
Supply and Demand by Price Bracket - the MOS ratio for all price ranges are up over last year, and particularly $600K and above. At our current rate of sales, it will take nearly 6 months before our current inventory is sold (and that assumes no new listings) - quite the difference from 3 years ago when MOS was about 15 days. It's still hard to reconcile the MOS ratio with the Days in Market (DIM) ratio which is a healthy median of 46 days. In uncertain times, buyers and sellers need to be certain their plan is supported by the data 😎.
January 2025
Read the full January 2025 Desert Housing Report for yourself. Lots of interesting facts, observations, and conclusions. The market analytics are really quite good. My thanks to the Greater Palm Springs Realtors Association (GPSR) for pulling this data together each month.
The median 12 month change in price for the area is +5% for detached (single family homes), and you can see not all cities are performing equally and notably some of the high growth average is in cities with a smaller base of comparable sales, such as Coachella +17.4%, Bermuda Dunes +17.1%. The larger cities are experiencing a more modest average increase like Palm Springs +2.5%, Palm Desert +2.4%, LaQuinta +4.9%. I’m most surprised by Rancho Mirage with -7.7% change in average price from +2.3% in December. One month doesn’t make a trend, but let’s keep our eye on Rancho Mirage, a city I think of as the bellwether of the Palm Springs area ❤️. Continuing my thoughts about attached homes (condos) the median price is up about 2% across all the cities in the valley. Indian Wells and LaQuinta experienced an outstanding +24.6% and +12.5% increase, respectively. Palm Springs +1.7%, Palm Desert +1.2% and Rancho Mirage -0.1% are all relatively flat in terms of year-over-year change in prices.
A higher inventory of homes for sale means a greater selection of homes for buyers to choose from, and maybe it's the news they have been waiting for, but on the flip side, sellers need an effective sales strategy that works in a competitive market.
Maybe our most important indicator of where the market is heading is the “Months of Sales” (MOS) ratio - basically the real estate industry’s measure of supply and demand. MOS is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the existing rate of sales. When the demand for properties is high and the supply is low, prices tend to rise (seller’s market), correspondingly when the supply is greater than demand, prices usually fall (buyer’s market). 6 months is the magic number: *below 6 months supply is low and favors the seller both in price and time on market, **above 6 months favors the buyer, with a greater selection of homes and increased bargaining power** At our current 5.6 MOS, we are on the precipice of a buyers market - and more inventory is expected to come on the market in the next few months with the beginning of our season. Watch for MOS by city and price range - there are some pretty wild swings so whether you’re a buyer or seller, you’ll want to have a plan in this market 🤓.
Another way to slice the “Months of Sales” ratio (MOS) is the supply and demand by city. On a macro level, inventory of homes available for sale in the area is up 43% over the same time last year. High inventory and high MOS supports the theory that >6 MOS favors buyers with lower prices, and <6 MOS favors the sellers with higher prices. Depending on which side of the fence you’re on, you may or may not like the trajectory of where price appears to be heading. Whichever the case, in uncertain times, buyers and sellers need to be certain their Realtor has a plan 😎.
Finally the “Months of Sales” ratio (MOS) by price bracket. Since MOS is the supply and demand metric for real estate, it’s relevant which segment is driving the results. Generally, it’s the high end of the market, specifically the $900K-$1M and +$2M homes where inventory appears to be stacking up when compared to the average MOS for all price ranges of 5.6 months. The low to moderately priced homes don’t seem to be screaming for attention as the high end. I imagine there’s a lot of tough conversations going on between agents and sellers in this market segment. In uncertain times, buyers and sellers need to be certain their Realtor has a plan 😎.
End of Year 2024
End of year 2024 market data is out, and results are somewhat a mixed bag, looking at the greater Palm Springs area, it appears as though prices and number of home sales were stable, but there’s quite an increase of inventory returning to pre-pandemic levels, correspondingly the months of sales and days on the market have increased, but not to a level of overly concern - yet. Naturally, this isn’t true for all desert cities or neighborhoods, the details are quite interesting 🧐
Seems like we have several bubbles in the price ranges of what’s selling compared to last year. Maybe it’s intuitive and all is as it should be, but maybe it’s a leading indicator of what’s happening in our market. Seeing strength in the very high end homes over $2M, and the low end under $300K. The middle is conflicted, but the big surprise is the weakness of the $900K to $2M range. Is this the fallout from interest rates effecting market segments differently?🧐
For years we’ve complained that lack of homes for sale was our biggest challenge, well that’s all changed now. We are back to what would be considered “normal” and inventory in the greater Palm Springs area is up everywhere (with the exception of the city of Coachella.) On average 35% more homes for sale compared to the same time last year. Pretty wild differences between cities with Palm Springs at +25%, Rancho Mirage +34%, Palm Desert +44%, and Indio at +64%. No doubt this correlates with the rise in the “months of sales” and “days on the market”, and what appears to be a directional shift away from a seller’s market. How might this affect sellers and buyers today? Talk to someone who can help with the answers 😀
Maybe our most important indicator of where the market is heading is the “Months of Sales” ratio - basically the industry’s measure of supply and demand measuring the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the existing rate of sales. Remember that old economic principle from school? Well, turns out we should pay attention - when the demand for properties is high and the supply is low, prices tend to rise, when the supply exceeds demand, prices usually fall. Most experts see 6 months as the magic number: *below 6 months supply is low and favors the seller both in price and time on market, *above 6 months favors the buyer, with a greater selection of homes and increased bargaining power. At our current 4.8 months of sales, we’re probably in a “balanced” market, favoring neither buyer or seller - but look at the direction it appears to be heading, and more inventory is expected with the beginning of our season. Swipe left to see how your city is doing - we want to keep our eyes on this key indicator 🤓.
